Reducing Food Stamp and Welfare Caseloads in the South: Are Rural Areas Less Likely to Succeed Than Urban Centers? by

In this paper, tests are made for the effect that the spatial distribution of welfare and Food Stamp caseloads may have on caseload change in the South. Spatial effects are captured by contrasting caseload trends overtime in metropolitan (urban) counties and nonmetropolitan (rural) counties within two southern states, Mississippi and South Carolina. Tests for a location effect on caseload change are made using an empirical model that controls for trends in the vitality of the local (county) economy, trends in the opportunity cost to the welfare recipient of not entering the workforce, and changes in the welfare policy regime in each state. Findings from these tests indicate that reducing both welfare and Food Stamp participation rates will be more difficult in rural counties than in urban counties in these southern states. Paper presented at Rural Dimensions of Welfare Reform: A Research Conference on Poverty, Welfare and Food Assistance. Georgetown University Conference Center, Washington, DC. May 4-5, 2000.